Some World Cup matches are about tactics.
Others are about history.
Portugal versus Croatia in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32 is about both.
When these European heavyweights meet Thursday night at Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), bettors won’t simply be watching two talented squads compete for a place in the Round of 16. They’ll witness what could be the final World Cup meeting between two of football’s greatest legends—Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modrić. Reuters notes that both veterans remain central figures for their national teams despite being in the twilight of their international careers.
While the headlines naturally focus on those iconic names, smart bettors know this matchup will likely be decided elsewhere.
The real battle could unfold in midfield, where Portugal’s Vitinha, Bruno Fernandes, and João Neves attempt to dictate possession against Croatia’s experienced trio led by Modrić and Mateo Kovačić. Croatia coach Zlatko Dalić has emphasized that controlling midfield—not stopping Ronaldo alone—is the key to upsetting Portugal.
For bettors, that’s where the value begins.
Portugal Enters as the Favorite—but Not an Overwhelming One
Unlike Spain earlier in the day, Portugal doesn’t enter this knockout match as a massive favorite.
Most sportsbooks have Portugal around -125 to -133 on the moneyline, while Croatia is available between +400 and +410, with the draw around +240 to +365 depending on the bookmaker. Odds continue to move as kickoff approaches.
That pricing tells an important story.
Oddsmakers clearly respect Portugal’s superior attacking depth, but they also understand Croatia’s reputation for frustrating elite opponents in knockout football.
Portugal’s group stage reflected that inconsistency. Roberto Martínez’s side mixed a dominant 5-0 victory over Uzbekistan with two scoreless draws, enough to advance but leaving questions about finishing consistency. Martínez has described the knockout rounds as “a second World Cup,” signaling that Portugal expects a different level of intensity from this point forward.
Croatia’s Greatest Weapon Isn’t Ronaldo’s Former Teammate—It’s Their Mentality
Croatia has built its international reputation on surviving matches that many expected it to lose.
Whether through disciplined defending, midfield control, or simply refusing to panic under pressure, the Croatians have repeatedly proven they are one of international football’s toughest knockout opponents.
Their World Cup run has followed that familiar blueprint.
After opening with a difficult loss to England, Croatia responded with victories over Panama and Ghana to earn a place in the Round of 32.
That resilience makes them particularly dangerous from a betting perspective.
Rather than chasing an unlikely Croatia moneyline, experienced bettors may find greater value in markets such as:
- Croatia +1.0 Asian Handicap
- Both Teams to Score
- Under 3.5 Goals
- Portugal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
These options acknowledge Portugal’s quality while respecting Croatia’s ability to keep knockout matches competitive.
Can Portugal Break Croatia’s Knockout Resistance?
Portugal undoubtedly possesses the more explosive attack, but knockout football rarely rewards talent alone.
Croatia has built a reputation over the last decade by slowing games down, limiting mistakes, and forcing opponents into uncomfortable situations. Portugal, meanwhile, thrives when its midfield can control possession and create space for Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leão, and Vitinha. Reuters reported that Croatia coach Zlatko Dalić believes the midfield battle—not simply stopping Ronaldo—will determine who advances.
This is why bettors should avoid chasing long-shot scorelines and instead focus on markets that reflect what knockout football usually produces: tight margins, disciplined defending, and moments of individual brilliance.
Potential betting markets include:
- Portugal Moneyline
- Portugal to Advance
- Under 2.5 Goals
- Portugal & Under 3.5 Goals
- Both Teams to Score – No
What Should Bettors Watch Before Kickoff?
There are several key factors that could influence betting markets before kickoff.
First, monitor the official starting lineups. If Roberto Martínez rotates his attack or Cristiano Ronaldo starts on the bench, markets could shift significantly.
Second, weather could become a factor. Forecasts have warned of high temperatures in Toronto, conditions that could reduce the pace of play and favor lower-scoring betting markets.
Finally, pay attention to late market movement. If Portugal’s moneyline shortens significantly before kickoff, bettors may find greater value in alternative markets rather than backing the favorite outright.
Best Bet
Portugal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Portugal has the deeper squad and greater attacking quality, but Croatia has consistently made knockout matches difficult for elite opponents. Combining a Portugal victory with fewer than four total goals offers a stronger value proposition than simply backing Portugal on the moneyline. Current previews generally price Portugal as a modest favorite around -117 to -125 on the three-way moneyline, with totals leaning toward a lower-scoring match.
Why Bettors Should Watch This
This isn’t just another Round of 32 fixtures.
It could represent the final World Cup appearance for Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modrić, two players who defined an era of international football. Portugal enters with greater attacking depth, while Croatia brings years of knockout experience and resilience.
For bettors, this is one of the day’s most intriguing matches because the market expects Portugal to advance, yet Croatia has repeatedly shown it can frustrate favored opponents.
If you’re placing wagers today, compare prices across sportsbooks such as Bookmaker and BetAnything to secure the best available number before kickoff.