The 2025 Belmont Stakes, known as the oldest and most legendary part of the American Triple Crown, is scheduled for Saturday, June 7, at Saratoga Race Course—this will be the second year in a row that the race takes place there while Belmont Park is being renovated. The 157th edition of the “Test of Champions” will be run at 1 1/4 miles instead of the usual 1 1/2 miles because of the temporary change in location.
Belmont Stakes 2025: The Field and Odds
Sovereignty comes in as the slight favorite following his impressive win at the Kentucky Derby, where he beat Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths. He opted out of the Preakness to take a break and get ready for the Belmont. Meanwhile, Journalism bounced back from his Derby loss to clinch the Preakness, paving the way for an exciting rematch between the two winners of the Triple Crown legs.
Other significant contenders are Baeza, who came in third at the Kentucky Derby and has impressive lineage ties (he’s a half-brother to last year’s Belmont champion Dornoch), Rodriguez (the Wood Memorial winner trained by Bob Baffert), and Hill Road (the Peter Pan winner from Chad Brown). Heart of Honor is the longest shot at 20-1, but he might provide some good value for exotic wagers.
Expert Predictions and Advanced Analysis
Jody Demling— A leading horse racing expert, known for accurately predicting the top three finishers of the Kentucky Derby in order and the Preakness exacta this year, has shared his picks for the Belmont Stakes. Interestingly, Demling is not choosing either of the two frontrunners, Sovereignty or Journalism, to take the win. He points out that Sovereignty might be a bit rusty after a long break since the Derby, and he also mentions that Journalism’s career path is similar to that of his father Curlin, who won the Preakness but came in second at the Belmont.
Demling’s favorite choice is an underdog he believes offers “the best value in the race,” but the exact name is hidden behind SportsLine’s paywall. From what we know and what experts are saying, Baeza and Rodriguez seem to be the top “value” contenders. Baeza’s impressive Derby performance and lineage indicate he might do even better, while Rodriguez’s speed and fresh legs (since he skipped the first two Triple Crown races) make him a bit of a surprise element.
In-Depth Race Dynamics and Betting Strategies
Pace and Tactics
Rodriguez is likely to be the one with early speed, and if he joins in, he might establish a quick tempo.
Gosger (though not found in every source, it’s noted as a potential entry) is another horse with few races under its belt who might push the pace, keeping it genuine and possibly creating opportunities for the closers.
Sovereignty and Journalism are both adaptable, yet they might enjoy a stalking adventure.
Baeza and Hill Road are expected to be in the middle of the pack and will probably make their moves during the stretch.
Advanced Betting Picks and Value Plays
Win Bets
Sovereignty (8-5): The field’s class might be at risk because of the layoff.
Journalism (9-5): Strong and reliable, though he might not perform at his peak the third time around in a short span.
Baeza (7-2): Delivers the perfect mix of value, style, and heritage.
Rodriguez (6-1): The speedy wildcard with an excellent trainer.
Exotic Bets
Exacta/Trifecta: Think about boxing Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza, and Rodriguez for their worth.
Longshot Special: Heart of Honor at 20-1 is a good candidate for a small bet in exotic wagers due to its potential for a big payoff.
Expert’s Top Value Pick
Although Demling’s specific selection is locked behind a paywall, it seems that Baeza or Rodriguez are the top contenders for the best “value” horses. Baeza’s impressive performance in the Derby and his pedigree make him a sensible pick, whereas Rodriguez’s fresh energy and speed might catch everyone off guard if he manages to take an early lead.
Final Projected Leaderboard (Expert Consensus)
According to expert insights and recent performance, here’s a forecasted outcome:
Baeza – Great value, solid recent performance, and a strong background for the distance.
Sovereignty – The most elegant horse, but it might need a race after the break.
Journalism – Steady but could fall back after a challenging Preakness.
Rodriguez – A speedster who can keep up if the pace is chill.
Wildcard: Heart of Honor might just pull off the superfecta at a great price.
The 2025 Belmont Stakes is shaping up to be an exciting clash between the winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, along with a bunch of other skilled contenders eager to compete. Although Sovereignty and Journalism are the top picks, experts believe there’s merit in considering options beyond these two. Baeza and Rodriguez are highlighted as the most probable upset contenders, while Heart of Honor presents a longshot opportunity. For those placing bets, concentrating on exactas and trifectas that feature these horses might provide the best payouts.