The 151st Kentucky Derby is happening on Saturday, May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs, and it’s going to be an exciting race with 20 horses competing for the first leg of the Triple Crown. The post positions are set, and the odds are changing, so let’s take a look at the top contenders, some under-the-radar picks, and bets that experts suggest.
Race Overview
Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET
Distance: 1.25 miles
Key Storyline: Bob Baffert is back after a three-year ban, looking to win his seventh Derby win with Rodriguez and Citizen Bull.
Top Contenders
Journalism (3-1)
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli | Trainer: Mike McCarthy
Profile: The top pick has taken home the win in four straight races, with impressive prep wins at Santa Anita. Starting from the No. 8 post gives him the chance to steer clear of early congestion, and Rispoli’s smart riding could make all the difference. Still, his odds might slide to 4-1 by the time the race rolls around, thanks to Baffert being in the mix and a packed field
Strengths: Steady performance, dominance in California prep races, and impressive finishing speed.
Risk: Possibility of over betting and susceptibility to late-charging competitors.
Sandman (6-1)
Jockey: Jose Ortiz | Trainer: Mark Casse
Profile: Claimed victory at the Arkansas Derby by skillfully positioning and then sprinting to the finish. Ortiz’s skills in handling crowded races makes him an elite jockey choice.
Key Factor: It needs a fresh start from the inside post to prevent early crowding.
Sovereignty (5-1)
Jockey: Unspecified | Trainer: William Mott
Profile: A colt that’s been racing a bit but is getting better fast, showing off some solid workouts lately. His odds have dropped from 11-1 to 5-1, thanks to some late betting action.
Rodriguez (12-1)
Jockey: Unspecified | Trainer: Bob Baffert
Profile: He won the Wood Memorial, but he wasn’t very consistent in his earlier prep races. Experts like Jody Demling suggest you might want to steer clear of him because of worries about his stamina and the level of competition.
Wildcard: Baffert’s training skills could boost his performance.
Sleeper Picks
Burnham Square (12-1)
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Profile: A strong finisher who picks up speed in the final stretch. Hernandez’s saving energy skills at the start might just land him in the top four.
American Promise (30-1)
Profile: This week features improved odds, hinting at some solid recent training or insider trust.
Double-Digit Longshots
Citizen Bull (20-1): He’s the type to jump out in front, but if he gets pushed, he might fall back.
Render Judgment (30-1): Toby Keith’s estate owns it, sparking nostalgic betting excitement.
Expert’s Dark Horse: Demling points out a mystery horse that’s creating a lot of excitement in the stables with odds of 30-1 or higher.
Betting Strategies
Expert Recommendations
Exacta/Trifecta Key: Box Journalism featuring Sandman, Sovereignty, and a wild card like Burnham Square.
Win Bets: Sticking with Journalism is the safest bet, but Sovereignty gives you more bang for your buck at 5-1.
Superfecta Play: Add Journalism, Sandman, Sovereignty, and a long shot like Citizen Bull or Render Judgment.
Trainer and Jockey Dynamics
Bob Baffert: Looking to make a comeback after his suspension, drawing on his incredible experience from the Derby.
Umberto Rispoli: An underrated jockey who knows how to find the right spot; he might just surprise everyone in his Derby debut.
Jose Ortiz: The ride on Sandman that won the Arkansas Derby really showed off his skill in handling the pace.
Sports Betting Ace’s Final Predictions
WINNER: JOURNALISM (3-1) – His steady performance and strong preparation make him a solid pick, but not a guaranteed one.
TOP FOUR: Sandman, Sovereignty, Burnham Square.
DARK HORSE: Keep an eye on Demling’s mystery longshot (30-1+) to make it into the superfecta.